Executive Summary

Q4 delivered the best quarter of 2024 and the second-highest quarterly revenue in company history, with net revenue up 16% to $105.0M and adjusted EBITDA up 8% to $25.3M, driven by North American e‑commerce and record Automation sales .
Reported gross margin improved 170 bps year over year to 39.4% as COGS depreciation fell and EMEA/APAC profitability improved; adjusted EBITDA margin implied ~24.1% for Q4 .
Product mix shifted further toward void‑fill (up 36% YoY) while cushioning declined 14%; installed base rose to ~142.7k machines (+1%) .
2025 outlook: net revenue $387–$409M and AEBITDA $88–$97M (cc, at €/$1.0822); Automation revenue expected to grow ~50%; capex $36–$38M; ~$20M cash generation targeted; net leverage goal 2.5–3.0x, with ~$50M debt reduction planned; GAAP revenue/AEBITDA to reflect a non‑cash $3–$5M Amazon warrant drag .
Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved at this time due to API limits; vs‑estimate comparisons are therefore unavailable.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

North America strength and holiday demand: “best quarter of the year and second best quarterly revenue in the history of Ranpak,” with Q4 NA sales up 36% and volumes up ~39–40% YoY, fueled by e‑commerce and strategic accounts .
Automation momentum: largest revenue quarter ever in Q4; Automation grew >40% in 2024 and is guided to grow ~50% in 2025 as the company targets $100M+ medium‑term .
Deleveraging and liquidity: cash of $76.1M, no revolver draws, LTM net leverage ~4x; term loan refinanced in Dec-2024 into a 7‑year USD TLB, with cross‑currency swaps reducing interest cost by ~130 bps on hedged portion .

What Went Wrong

Mix and ramp inefficiencies compressed flow‑through: strong Q4 volume exceeded internal plans, driving near‑term inefficiencies (freight/logistics) and lower margins in North America enterprise ramp; management expects normalization through 2025 .
Automation profitability still a drag: despite growth, Automation contributed a negative ~$7M to 2024 AEBITDA; the business is expected to trend toward breakeven by YE25 as it scales .
Europe remains muted: EMEA/APAC combined grew just ~1% cc in Q4, with cushioning pressured and macro uncertainty (energy volatility, tariff risk) weighing on activity .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs prior quarters (USD, fiscal Q2–Q4 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$86.4	$92.2	$105.0
Net Income (Loss) ($M)	$5.5	$(8.1)	$(8.0)
EPS (basic & diluted)	$0.07	$(0.10)	$(0.10)
Gross Margin %	36.7%	37.5%	39.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$20.4 (cc)	$20.5 (cc)	$25.3
Notes on AEBITDA Margin	n/a	~21.6% (implied)	~24.1% (implied)

Q4 2024 product-line revenue mix (vs prior year)

Product Line	Q4 2023 ($M)	Q4 2024 ($M)	YoY Change
Cushioning	$35.9	$30.9	(14%)
Void‑Fill	$38.4	$52.3	+36%
Wrapping	$10.2	$11.6	+14%
Other (incl. Automation & accessories)	$5.9	$10.2	+73%
Total	$90.4	$105.0	+16%

KPIs and Installed Base

KPI	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	YoY
PPS Installed Base – Cushioning (k)	34.8	34.4	(1.1%)
PPS Installed Base – Void‑Fill (k)	83.7	85.7	+2.4%
PPS Installed Base – Wrapping (k)	22.7	22.6	(0.4%)
Total PPS Installed Base (k)	141.2	142.7	+1.1%
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	$62.0	$76.1	+$14.1
Term Debt Outstanding ($M)	$397.8	$410.0	Refinanced Dec’24

Notes:

Q4 gross margin improvement reflects lower COGS depreciation and improved EMEA/APAC profitability, offset by lower‑margin enterprise mix in NA .
Q4 AEBITDA reconciliation includes unusual items (e.g., loss on debt extinguishment, SOX remediation) per non‑GAAP bridge .

Estimates comparison:

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of retrieval due to API limitations; vs‑estimate comparisons are not included.*

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Revenue (cc)	FY 2025	n/a	$387–$409M (at €/$1.0822)	New
Adjusted EBITDA (cc)	FY 2025	n/a	$88–$97M	New
Amazon Warrant Impact	FY 2025	n/a	Non‑cash $(3)–$(5)M to GAAP revenue and AEBITDA	New
Volume Growth (PPS)	FY 2025	n/a	Mid‑ to high‑single‑digit volumes	New
Automation Revenue	FY 2025	n/a	~+50% YoY; ~$45M+ target	New
Capex	FY 2025	n/a	$36–$38M	New
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	n/a	~$20M at current FX	New
Net Leverage Target	Next 18–24 months	n/a	2.5x–3.0x goal; delever with ~$50M debt paydown in 2025	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI & Technology/Automation	“Automation and data capabilities” differentiating large account wins	Bookings up 60% YTD; integrated solutions (data, vision, PPS) increasingly decisive	Rabot AI partnership; R2 Decision Tower; data (Precube’it); Pickle Robot partnership; Automation record Q4 and +50% growth outlook	Accelerating
Supply Chain & Paper	Input costs roughly stable; gross margin 36.7%	Channel inventories tight into holiday season	NA kraft paper tightness in Q4 led to short‑term freight/logistics inefficiencies; margin improvement expected as market adjusts	Tight near‑term, normalizing expected
Tariffs/Macro	—	EU energy volatility; cautious EMEA macro	Tariffs add ~+$1M to 2025 capex; otherwise minimal sourcing impact; EMEA macro still challenged	Cautious
Product Mix	Void‑fill strength, cushioning softness	Continued: void‑fill up; cushioning pressured	Q4: void‑fill +36%, cushioning (14%); other +73% (Automation/accessories)	Persistent mix shift to e‑commerce/void‑fill
Regional Trends	EU/Asia modest; NA +17% (Q2)	NA +15.5% cc; EU/APAC +7.1% cc	NA +36% revenue/+~39–40% vols; EU/APAC +1% cc; Germany closely watched	NA robust; EMEA subdued
Legal/One‑offs	Patent settlement and patent sale proceeds in Q2	—	Non‑cash warrant accounting to offset Amazon revenue in GAAP	One‑offs evolving

Management Commentary

“We finished 2024 on a really positive note… our best quarter of the year and second best quarterly revenue in the history of Ranpak.” – Omar Asali, CEO .
“North America had its highest net revenue quarter ever, driven by 39% volume growth… Adjusted EBITDA… implies a 24.1% adjusted EBITDA margin.” – Bill Drew, CFO .
“We are excited to deepen our relationship with the largest buyer of packaging and automation solutions globally [Amazon]… this transaction aligns our interests for further growth and expansion.” – CEO .
“There will be some noise related to the revenue associated with Amazon as the value of the warrants are recognized… a noncash decrease to reported revenue… We recommend looking at our income statement on a pro forma basis adding those revenue offsets back.” – CFO .
“We expect Automation revenue to be up more than 50% in 2025… As that business scales… we expect… high‑teens to 20% AEBITDA margin.” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Amazon ramp and scope: Expect double‑digit volume growth with Amazon across geographies; evolving to a more asset‑light paper model over time; opportunities in PPS and Automation .
Installed base impact: Expect both new placements and refurbished machines as footprint expands with Amazon and other large enterprise accounts .
Europe outlook: Guidance range includes conservatism for Europe; German fiscal stimulus could be a tailwind if realized, but not embedded in the outlook .
EBITDA→FCF bridge (FY25, midpoint ~$93–$94M AEBITDA): Capex ~$36–$37M; cash interest ~$34M; cash taxes ~$4–$5M; slight WC benefit → ~$20M FCF targeted .
Warrant expense mechanics: $3–$5M non‑cash warrant expense embedded in 2025 GAAP revenue/AEBITDA; varies with Amazon sales contribution .
Seasonality: Typical step‑down Q4→Q1 (high single to low double‑digit %); 1H:2H mix ~47%:53% in 2025, heavier in 2H on holiday seasonality .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue but hit API rate limits; thus we cannot provide a vs‑consensus comparison for this quarter.*
Implications: Given the magnitude of the top‑line beat vs sequential run‑rate (Q4 $105.0M vs Q3 $92.2M) and margin expansion to 39.4% gross margin, Street models may raise 2025 revenue and AEBITDA for North America and Automation, while adjusting GAAP optics for the warrant drag .

Key Takeaways for Investors

North America is the growth engine; double‑digit volume growth and enterprise wins (incl. Amazon) drove Q4 outperformance and should support 2025 growth despite tougher 2H comps .
Automation is scaling from ~$(30)M revenue in 2024 toward ~$45M+ in 2025 and breakeven by YE25; longer‑term, management targets $60–$100M revenue with high‑teens/20% margins, a structural mix and margin tailwind .
Near‑term GAAP optics will be noisy due to the non‑cash Amazon warrant; focus on underlying volumes, cash flow, and AEBITDA to assess core trajectory .
Europe remains the swing factor; guidance embeds caution; any macro upside (e.g., German fiscal stimulus) could provide unmodeled tailwinds .
Balance sheet flexibility improved post‑refi; with ~$20M FCF targeted and ~$50M planned debt paydown in 2025, leverage could trend toward 2.5–3.0x over 18–24 months, supporting optionality in capital allocation .
Mix shift toward void‑fill and enterprise accounts temporarily pressured margins, but internal optimization and supply normalization are expected to enhance margins through 2025 .
Stock catalysts: confirmation of Amazon and other enterprise scale‑ups, Automation bookings converting to revenue, EMEA stabilization, and clearer disclosure around warrant accounting effects .

* S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at time of retrieval due to API limits; vs‑consensus comparisons are therefore not included. Values above are from company filings and transcripts as cited.

Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary